For years, I’ve heard fantasy football analysts and pundits make the same claim that wide receivers are safer, more predictable, and less risky than running backs. This has even become conventional wisdom in some circles, especially amongst those who do a lot of best-ball drafts (like I do on platforms like DraftKings and Underdog).

But, here’s the truth: The data says otherwise. In fact, the data says the opposite.

I went back through the last five years of date; specifically looking at the half-PPR consensus rankings from FantasyPros going into each of the last five season and I compared that to the actual finishes. I wanted to see how often certain tiers of players actually finished inside that tier that they were expected to finish in. What I found is pretty clearly data that contradicts the narrative that wide receivers are the stable, low-risk option.

 

The Numbers, Year by Year

The tables below have the consensus rankings for players in each positional tier (e.g., the “Top 12 RBs” represents the group of running backs that were the consensus top 12 ranked running backs headed into the season, according to the Half-PPR experts’ consensus rankings at FantasyPros.com). The “Actual Hit Rate” represents the percentage of those players (in that tier) that actually did indeed finish in that tier (or better) at the end of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Five-Year Averages

Over the last five seasons, 120 players were drafted as consensus top 24 running backs. 81 of them returned top 24 value. That’s a 68% hit rate — the highest of any position.

Top 24 wide receivers hit at 62% over the same stretch. Top 12 running backs hit at 53%. Top 12 wide receivers hit at 47%.

The differences aren’t enormous, but they’re consistent. Running backs outperformed wide receivers at both tiers in every single season of the five-year window. That’s not noise — that’s a pattern.

The most volatile position by a wide margin is quarterback. Top six quarterbacks have hit at just 36% over the last five years. Top 12 quarterbacks have hit at 46%. Nearly half the guys drafted as top 12 quarterbacks end the season outside the top 12.

 

What This Means for How You Should Draft

A few conclusions worth drawing from this data:

Running backs are safer early. The hit rate is consistently higher at both the top 12 and top 24 tiers. This doesn’t mean you ought to ignore wide receivers or pass up any legitimate stud at the WR position just for the sake of taking a RB. We need wide receivers on our rosters to win. But when the decision is close in the early rounds, the data supports leaning toward RBs.

My personal approach going into 2026 drafts: I want to, ideally, come out of the first seven rounds with four running backs on my roster, if possible. After that, I’m targeting wide receiver value. Each season, there are almost always two or three receivers in rounds eight through eleven who are being undervalued, and that’s true in 2026 too. So, that’s where I want to load up at the position.

Do not draft a quarterback early. This is the conclusion I think should be ironclad. The volatility at quarterback is extreme. Most of the QBs drafted as top 12 quarterbacks don’t end up finishing as top 12 quarterbacks. What that means in practice is there are always quarterbacks finishing inside the top 12 who were drafted well outside it. The guys who go in rounds 13 through 15 have a surprisingly real shot at top-five quarterback finishes in any given year.

Some people will look at this data and conclude that the smart move is to grab the one surefire QB early — a guy like Josh Allen — and lock in the stability. I understand the logic. But every time I draft a quarterback in the first few rounds, what I’m really doing is sacrificing depth at running back and wide receiver, which is where the actual value is.

If you’re in a 12-team league in 2026 and Josh Allen somehow falls to the late third or early fourth round, then pulling the trigger at that points might be defensible. Any earlier than that, and I think you’re overpaying for a position that has historically been the hardest to predict in fantasy football.

Drafting a quarterback in the middle rounds — say, round six — carries a high probability that the player will not return value commensurate with the pick. That’s a bet I’m not willing to make when better options exist.

The data doesn’t lie. Running back is the safest position in fantasy football. It’s time to retire the myth that receivers are the stable choice.