Last year, I wrote an article entitled Top Five Mistakes Fantasy Football Owners Make. Therein I listed a few things that fantasy owners do that torpedo their success; like assuming they know what the player usage is going to be or assuming they know how the game scripts will go.

These assumptions are often based on bad sources, like comments from beat reporters, half-true rumors, things coaches say in press conferences, or just wild speculation from random unreliable social media accounts.

Here’s the thing: Those assumptions are almost always wrong! But that doesn’t stop fantasy analysts from being waaaayyyy over confident when giving fantasy advice.

 

Reasons for Confident Assumptions

Pre-Season or Training Camp Experiments: Sometimes teams put players in odd or unexpected positions during training camp or preseason games. In most situations, they’re just experimenting.

My estimate is that 90% of the time it means nothing, and it’s nearly impossible to guesstimate which 10% actually matters, so you’re better off ignoring these things. But so many fantasy analysts love to overreact to those things.

Beat Reports: Each team has beat reporters that are often just trying to find fodder for their columns. And they all know that the best way to get access to players is to be chummy and write puff pieces—this leads to a load of overly positive articles written each summer during training camps. They report so much useless garbage.

NOTE: Some beat reporters are good (not many, but some). And sometimes those beat reporters get some things right. But gosh, it just feels so hard to parse out what’s actually good and what’s trash.

Random Leaks and Rumors: There’s all sorts of rumors that get passed around. Usually this is something that was leaked to a media outlet from an agent or a team source, with some ulterior motive. It rarely means anything of value.

Wild Speculation: Then we have speculation based on unrelated events and silly things.

For example, in summer 2025 Buffalo Bills RB James Cook reportedly put his house for sale, and that caused all sorts of fantasy peeps to speculate that Cook was definitely going to be traded, which actually depressed his value in bestball drafts during the early part of summer 2025. Eventually Cook signed a decent contract extension and stayed put in Buffalo.

Coachspeak: Then, of course, there’s the things coaches say. Coaches say all sorts of things in press conferences and interviews. Sometimes the coaches are trying to motivate a player, so they’ll intentionally say something aimed at him. Other times they’re trying to cater to a player, so they’ll say things to make that player feel good.

And then there’s the coaches that just randomly talk. They’re not strategic or manipulative at all, they just randomly say pointless things.

 

2024 Confident Training Camp Assumptions and the Track Record

Let’s examine how the fantasy football expert community did in the 2024 season.

Here’s a list of things that nearly every fantasy expert was citing, with great confidence, as reasons for their projections and rankings:

– Jalen Hurts is going to vulture goal-line TDs from Saquon Barkley making Barkley a bad first round pick; confidence based on comments from coach and beat reporters. Result: Barkley was the #1 RB in fantasy.

– According to beat reporters, James Cook was having a bad training camp and was losing goal-line carries to rookie Ray Davis and veteran Ty Johnson. Result: Cook scored 16 rushing TDs in 2024, tied for the league lead.

– According to beat reporters, Anthony Richardson was supposedly having a great training camp. He was being drafted in the 5th or 6th rounds of fantasy drafts. Result: Richardson played terribly. He started 11 games, throwing for 1,814 yards, 8 TDs, and 12 INTs.

– Christian Kirk was depressed somewhat because Kirk was supposedly not going to ever play in personnel packages with only two WRs; confidence based on observations and comments from beat reporters during training camp. Result: Kirk actually played in 63% of the Jaguars two-WR sets before breaking his collarbone in week 8.

– Multiple beat reporters claimed that they were told that Chris Godwin would play more from the slot in 2024 than he did in 2023. This caused some fantasy analysts to lower Godwin in their ranks. Result: Godwin ran 62% of his routes from the slot in 2024, which was less than 2023 and 2022; he was the 5th best fantasy WR through the first six weeks of the 2024 season in standard formats and the 3rd best WR in PPR leagues; he had 50 receptions for 576 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns before suffering an ankle dislocation in week 7.

– According to beat reporters, Rachaad White was having a good training camp and rookie Bucky Irving was having a bad camp; in fact, some fantasy analysts ranked Sean Tucker ahead of Irving. White’s ADP was late 2nd round (or early 3rd round) in most formats. Irving was mostly undrafted (or occasionally drafted in the last few rounds). Result: Irving had 1,514 total scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns. White had 1,006 total scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns.

– Courtland Sutton had his ADP drop significantly over the course of six weeks in summer 2024, from 8th round into the 10th round (he was WR49 off the board); this happened primarily because beat reporters said he was having a bad training camp and new head coach Sean Payton made comments that led many fantasy analysts to believe Sutton was not jiving with the new coaching staff. Result: Sutton scored 204 fantasy points in typical ESPN scoring leagues, finishing as the WR11.

– Many fantasy football analysts confidently claimed Justin Herbert was undraftable. He was the QB18 off the board. The reason for this confident projection was that new head coach Jim Harbaugh was supposedly going to be run-first (so there wouldn’t be enough passing offense). Also, Herbert was dealing with plantar fasciitis earlier in the summer. Results: Herbert threw for 3,870 passing yards (9th most in the NFL) and he scored 316 fantasy points in typical ESPN scoring systems, finishing as the QB11.

– According to one well-known beat reporter, Javonte Williams was having a bad training camp and was likely going to get cut, while Jaleel McLaughlin was going to be the primary RB in Denver in 2024. This caused several fantasy experts to significantly downgrade Williams. Result: Williams did not get cut; instead he had 190 touches for 859 scrimmage yards and 4 TDs, while McLaughlin had 140 touches for 567 scrimmage yards and only 1 TD.

– According to beat reporters, rookie Drake Maye was having a really bad training camp and was supposedly thoroughly outplayed by Jacoby Brissett. Results: Maye ended up starting 13 games, threw for nearly 2,300 yards and looked pretty good over the second half of the season.

– According to one well-known beat reporter, Jonathan Mingo caught “everyone’s eye” during Panthers training camp. This caused many fantasy experts to push him up their ranks. Results: Mingo had an abysmal 2024 campaign, catching just 17 receptions. He was traded to Dallas mid-season. 

 

2025 Confident Assumptions

As we can see, the fantasy community did not do so hot in 2024. Let’s track their thoughts and assumptions for 2025.

Here are some assumptions and sentiments that many fantasy football analysts are confident about as we head into 2025. I’m recording them here, with the plan of revisiting them after the season:

– Yet again, many fantasy football analysts are confidently claiming Justin Herbert is not a great pick because head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman are going to be too run heavy. Herbert is being drafted in the 10th round as QB15.

– Bengals will definitely have a bad defense, so that has shaped many analysts opinions of Joe Burrow and the Bengals skill players.

– Jonathan Taylor is considered by many as a bad pick in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts because many analysts are confident that the Colts QB play and offensive line will be bad.

– Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are supposedly going to split workload 50/50 because new head coach Aaron Glenn made a few comments about preferring to split the workload like it was in Detroit (where he was defensive coordinator); multiple fantasy analysts have cited the fact that Hall only got 50% of the starter snaps in the pre-season for reason to be concerned.

– De’Von Achane is going to get similar (or more) workload in Miami offense because their offensive like will suck (not allowing downfield routes to develop) so their long-to-medium passing game will be terrible and they’ll be forced to dump-off passes to Achance; several analysts quoted the coaching staff claiming that they wanted to get the ball out of Tua’s hands even faster than last season, which will lead to more dump-offs to Achane.

– James Conner will definitely get much less of the workload in 2025 because he himself made a comment about splitting the workload with young RB Trey Benson.

– Romeo Odunze will definitely be the #1 WR in Chicago partially influenced by DJ Moore himself saying that he is “going to take a step back” in 2025.

– Jaydon Blue got a lot of attention out of Dallas training camp and got a lot of the first-team reps. This has caused many fantasy analysts to think he was the clear better option over Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders.

– Bo Nix moved up draft boards throughout the summer, going from a 9th round pick in bestball drafts in June to being a 7th round pick in all formats by the end of August; this movement was caused mostly because of comments from beat reporters, praise from fellow teammates, and one excellent pre-season performance that Nix had against the Saints.

– TreVeyon Henderson will be primary ball carrier and get many catches out of the backfield; this confidence was because the coaching staff claimed Henderson is supposedly a great pass protector and he’ll definitely be on the field.

– Some fantasy analysts have noted that journeymen WR Oledmous Zaccheus started over Luther Burden in the pre-season; this has led many fantasy experts to downgrade Burden.

– Kenneth Walker has had some injuries which have impacted him; beat reports claim Zach Charbonet looked much better and could be the lead back in 2024, and Walker could even be traded.

– Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a late riser in Washington’s training camp, prompting one beat reporter to claim that Brian Robinson, Jr. would be cut or traded before the 2024 season to make way for JCM. Results: This reporting seemed very odd at first, but turned out to be correct.

– Jarquez Hunter got some first team reps in practice and pre-season, causing some fantasy analysts to say Hunter is ahead of Blake Corum and that Hunter could even potentially cut into Kyren Williams‘ work load.

– Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs were the star wide receivers in Packers’ training camp. Golden gained significant momentum, going from a 9th round pick in bestball drafts in June to being a 7th round pick in all formats by the end of August, mostly fueled by Golden’s stellar pre-season performance against the Jets; meanwhile, Doubs barely moved up draft boards this summer, generally going undrafted in most formats.

– Tyler Warren was great in training camp and was used in several different formations in pre-season games (even being considered to run the “tush-push”). Warren was being drafted in the 8th round as the #9 TE off the board.

– Rookies Brashard Smith and Jalen Royals reportedly were the stars of Chiefs camp on multiple days, although neither were pushed up draft boards significantly.

– According to beat reporters, Mason Taylor has been the big star of Jets training camp; although this doesn’t seem to have pushed his draft stock up much.

– According to multiple beat reports, Seattle’s rookie WR Tory Horton had a great camp, causing some fantasy analysts to tout him as a late round target.

– These tight ends have all dealt groin injuries and have had poor training camps, causing fantasy analysts to lower them: T.J. Hockenson, Tucker Kraft, and Terrance Ferguson (although Hockenson’s draft stock has held more steady than the others).